The Factory of Sadness team went a cool 3-0 with yesterday's betting picks while giving out two picks at plus odds -- not a bad start to the week.
With a 15-game MLB slate on tap, there are plenty of opportunities to keep this hot streak rolling on Tuesday, including one promising bet in our game and another within the AL Central. And while NBA Summer league action may be done, we're still looking at the Cavs to find some interesting betting value too.
Here are Tuesday's best bets from each of our Factory of Sadness editors.
Best Cleveland Bets: July 18, 2023
Tyler Maher: Guardians-Pirates UNDER
Our three-game series against the Pirates continues on Tuesday night at PNC Park. We put a stop to the four-game losing streak in epic fashion last night, blowing the doors off the Bucs in an 11-0 laugher.
Tonight won’t be as easy, though, as Pittsburgh has its ace Mitch Keller on the mound. He’s been flat-out dominant lately with a 2.16 ERA over his last four outings, so our bats will need to step up again tonight.
We’ve got rookie Logan Allen on the bump, who’s been recalled from Triple-A with all the injuries to our rotation lately. He was starting to figure things out before getting sent down, tossing 7 ⅔ scoreless innings in his two most recent outings.
Look for him to pick up where he left off against one of the worst offenses in baseball. The Pirates are averaging just 4.1 runs per game, which ranks dead last in the National League.
Unfortunately our offense isn’t any better, as we’re also averaging 4.1 runs per game. Both pitchers should have success tonight, so our best bet for this game is to take the Under.
Jason Schandl: Tigers Runline vs Royals
For fans looking to go beyond betting the Guardians game, fading the Kansas City Royals has been one of the biggest gimme’s in the AL Central this season. Whether you’re counting on them to just straight up lose, to get blown out or to fall short of their projected run totals, it’s been gravy. In fact, nobody has covered the runline less often than the Royals (34.7%) this season. The Under has also hit in 53.8% of Royals games (ninth-highest rate in the majors).
So naturally, today I’m projecting the Royals to flop, and to do it behind underwhelming offensive production - especially with Tarik Skubal on the mound for Detroit.
Skubal has been absolutely lights out in two starts this season (0 earned runs, going 4.0 innings both times), and that builds on some really promising numbers he posted in 2022 (3.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP).
The Royals, meanwhile, rank dead-last in the majors in wRC+. This offense is slightly better against southpaws, but not by much.
I’ll admit that the Tigers don’t hit southpaws well either, but Daniel Lynch is not exactly a lights-out lefty. His 4.18 ERA may not look terrible, but it’s backed by an ugly 5.23 xFIP, which lines up a lot more closely with the 5.69 and 5.13 ERAs he posted in his first two big league seasons. Even the Detroit bats are more than enough to give him issues.
You could bet this game in basically any anti-Royals way you want, but I’ll take the plus odds on KC losing by at least 2 runs.
Isaiah De Los Santos: Cavaliers Win Total OVER 49.5 Games (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Cleveland Cavaliers’ Summer League Championship win should have fans feeling giddy. While the title run is exciting, what’s even more intriguing is how the team’s inexperienced players dominated, and with consistency.
The core of Emoni Bates, Isaiah Mobley and Sam Merrill was a force throughout the tournament. Bates did exactly what the Cavs drafted him to do: score. He ranked third in Summer League PPG for Cleveland and wasn’t afraid to shoot, which led to a team-high 13.7 field goal attempts per game. Though there was a lot of discussion about Bates’ high-volume shooting, to his credit, he still was efficient with a 43.9% mark from the field. Even better, he posted 40.0% from deep on 7.5 attempts; if that translates to real NBA games, Cleveland may have found a second-round diamond in the rough.
Mobley, meanwhile, looks like a legitimate rotation contender after his display in Vegas. He led the team in scoring in three of their five games, paced the squad with 8.3 RPG, and notched a solid 1.5 BPG as well. After the younger Mobley brother saw limited run in 2022-23 for the Cavs, it was encouraging to say the least to see him enforce his will on the Summer League court.
Merrill’s sharpshooting in Las Vegas is one of the biggest stories from the entire event. He took his opportunity and ran with it, leading the team with an impressive 20.4 PPG. The bulk of his scoring came from the 3-point line, where he averaged a whopping 5.0 makes per contest on 11.2 attempts. That kind of efficiency from deep is coveted in the modern NBA, and it could catapult the fourth-year guard into legit playing time this season.
I like the chances of at least one of these players cracking the rotation and bringing some extra juice to Cleveland’s offense, which ranked sixth-worst in PPG last campaign. Throw in the additions of Max Strus and Georges Niang with no major losses, and this is a 51-win team that got even better this summer. That’s why I’m taking the Cavs to go over (-135) their total of 49.5 wins on DraftKings right now.
The best part of making this bet on DraftKings is that they have one of the few new user promos that unlocks instantly when you make your first bet. If you sign up for DraftKings through Factory of Sadness' link you'll automatically receive their top new-user promo: $150 in bonus bets guaranteed after you place your first $5 wager (whether it wins or loses!). Some books make you wait for that first bet to settle, so you don't really want to place a bet on a future pick like this. But on DraftKings your $150 bonus will be unlocked immediately once you bet $5 on the Cavs. This offer won't be around for long though, so claim it now!
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