Factory of Sadness' Top Cleveland Betting Picks for 7/20 (Trust Guardians, Fade Division Rivals)
By Tyler Maher
The Guardians are off today, but the Factory of Sadness team is still keeping an eye on the rest of the AL Central. We've got betting picks on a couple of our division rivals today as well as a Guardians future for fans to consider.
Keep in mind that that both of our game picks have afternoon start times today, so make sure to lock those bets in before first pitch.
Here are Thursday's best bets from each of our Factory of Sadness editors.
Best Cleveland Bets: July 20, 2023
Jason Schandl: Guardians to Win the AL Central
It’s a day off for the Guardians, but that’s still where I’m looking for betting action today.
If you had any concerns about Cleveland being a seller at the deadline and punting this season, the most recent update on a potential Shane Bieber trade should put your mind at ease.
This also makes them my favorite bet to win the AL Central. It’s certainly going to be an uphill battle and the Twins are favorites for a reason, but the odds on Cleveland are just too good to pass up.
First up, a 2.5-game deficit isn’t that big a hill to climb with nearly half the season remaining.
The Twins also just don’t scare me that much. Their pitching staff has been great, I’ll grant you that, but it's been backed by some below-average fielding and an offense that also sits in the middle of the pack (14th in the majors in wRC+).
The Guardians haven’t been much better (if any) in most areas, but now is the time to get your money down if you think they’ll make an impactful move or two at the deadline, and being steadfast on keeping Bieber makes me believe that they will.
The best place to make this bet is on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you get your entire $150 bonus instantly when you place your first bet of $5 or more if you sign up through the exclusive Factory of Sadness link. Most sportsbooks make you wait for that first bet to settle before you unlock your bonus, but at DraftKings you’ll get it right away and can start building that bankroll.
Still not 100% sold on DraftKings? Maybe all the info we have in our comprehensive review will answer any questions you still have.
Tyler Maher: Mariners Moneyline vs Twins
The Guardians get a breather today after dropping their series finale against the Pirates yesterday. They’ll be back in action tomorrow night against the Phillies, but for now Cleveland bettors will have to look elsewhere for their baseball fix.
One game of interest today involves the first-place Twins, who currently lead the Guardians by 2.5 games in the AL Central. Minnesota wraps up its four-game series against the Mariners in Seattle today after taking two of the first three.
The Twins will try to make it three in a row today behind All-Star righty Pablo Lopez. Lopez has been pretty good for the most part this year, but he’s coming off one of his worst starts of the season after getting torched for 7 runs by the A’s last time out.
The Mariners will counter with George Kirby, who also made the All-Star team this year. Kirby’s also coming off a poor outing after getting roughed up by the Tigers in his last start, so both starting pitchers are looking to bounce back today.
My money’s on Kirby, who has better overall numbers than Lopez. Kirby owns the best walk rate (0.9 BB/9) and K/BB ratio (8.45) in the majors, plus his 3.43 ERA is nearly a full run better than Lopez’s 4.24 mark. Accordingly, I’m taking Seattle to pull out the win at home today and get back to .500.
Isaiah De Los Santos: Tigers Moneyline @ Royals
The Tigers look to claim their third win in four days against the Royals this afternoon. Other than the Royals’ 11-run outburst on Tuesday, Detroit has kept the AL Central’s bottom-dwellers in check, winning 3-2 in their two other matchups this series.
The Tigers will once again have the pitching advantage in Thursday’s action as they turn to All-Star Michael Lorenzen. He’s posted a solid 3.75 ERA this season to go along with a 4-6 record across 16 starts. The 31-year-old is rolling in the month of July as well, surrendering just 5 hits over his past two starts combined and allowing no earned runs.
The Royals, meanwhile, will turn to Zack Greinke, who’s clearly showing his age. He’s gone a dismal 1-9 this year while putting up his worst ERA (5.44) since the 2005 campaign. Greinke’s been tagged for at least 6 earned runs in two of his last three outings, too, so he's not showing signs of turning things around.
With Greinke bleeding runs on the mound, the Tigers should have plenty of chances to score. I’m taking them on the moneyline in the series finale.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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