Factory of Sadness' Best Cleveland Betting Picks for 7/26 (Back the Birthday Boy)

The Browns have the day off at training camp today, so the AL Central race remains the focal point for Cleveland sports fans.

The Guardians narrowed the gap last night, and the afternoon action on Wednesday is going to make it hard for any of us to focus at work today. Guess we better find a different way to make money instead.

Here are the Factory of Sadness editors' best Cleveland sports betting picks for today.

Best Cleveland Bets: July 26, 2023

Tyler Maher: Guardians Runline vs Royals

The Guardians made us look good yesterday, rebounding from Monday’s loss with a 5-1 win over the Royals and covering the runline. With the rubber match on tap for this afternoon and a chance to even our record at .500, let’s run it back today.

We’ve got birthday boy Gavin Williams (1-2, 3.74 ERA) on the hill today, who’s been pretty good since coming up in late June. He’s got a 3.21 ERA over his last five starts and Cleveland is 4-2 in his outings so far,

Kansas City is countering with a rookie as well, although Alec Marsh’s career has gotten off to a much rougher start. The 25-year-old right has lost all four of his starts, but that’s what happens when you put up a 6.20 ERA and a 7.96 FIP.

Don’t overthink this one. Even if Williams isn’t at his best today, the Guardians should still score enough runs to win the game and cover the runline against the team with the second-worst record in baseball (29-74). .

Jason Schandl: Twins vs. Mariners UNDER

Cleveland moved a full game closer to the Twins in the AL Central last night, and fans will have a close eye on today’s Twins-Mariners game as well. And after a surprise shootout in their last one, the betting value is on this game being a low-scoring affair.

Joe Ryan’s on the mound for Minnesota, and while I was not really buying his 2022 breakout, he does kind of seem like he might be the real deal at this point. His ERA has predictably climbed from where it was last year, but his advanced numbers showcase that he’s actually playing significantly better baseball with his xFIP down to 3.68, his FIP at 3.65 and his skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) at a strong 3.36. His swinging-strike rate has lept to 14.0% behind another increase in velocity on his fastball.

And the Mariners are trotting out a bright young arm of their own in Bryce Miller, who owns a 3.50 ERA and has given up just 1 earned run over 10 ⅓ innings over his last two starts.

Looking to back either of our bets today? Factory of Sadness has secured some big sportsbook promos that will make sure you cash in:

We've also written up a Caesars Sportsbook review, a Bet365 review and a FanDuel Sportsbook review to help you decide which one to sign up with, though we recommend all of them to maximize your bonus winnings!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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