Browns training camp is here and the Guardians are continuing to fight for AL Central and Wild Card seeding. This is when July starts to get really exciting in the sports world.
And of course, what better way to make things even more exciting than getting some action down on the games, too? With a full slate of AL Central games on tap tonight, there's plenty of betting value to be had.
Here's a look at the Factory of Sadness editors' top betting picks for Tuesday.
Best Cleveland Bets: July 25, 2023
Tyler Maher: Guardians Runline vs Royals
The Guardians were unable to get the job done against the Royals yesterday as they were once again stymied by Ryan Yarbrough. We’re not sure why he has our number, but it’s definitely a little weird.
Anyways, we have a shot at redemption today with Aaron Civale on the mound. He’s been one of our best pitchers this year with a 2.71 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 63 innings, plus he dominated Kansas City with seven shutout innings earlier this month. He shouldn’t have much trouble against a Royals lineup that is averaging just 3.72 runs per game – second-fewest in MLB.
KC is trotting out Zack Greinke, who definitely looks his age (39) this year with a 1-10 record and a 5.40 ERA. Cleveland also clobbered him for 11 hits the last time he faced the Guardians in late June, so it’s hard to see him having a bounce-back performance here.
Greinke may be a former Cy Young winner, but he’s one of the worst pitchers in baseball now. Look for Cleveland to take advantage at the plate and cover the runline behind another strong outing from Civale.
Jason Schandl: Twins Moneyline vs. Mariners
Looking around the AL Central, Guardians fans’ eyes are naturally going to be drawn to what’s going on with the Minnesota Twins. Every Cleveland win is important to at least avoid falling further behind in the AL Central, but we really want these wins to be paired with Twins losses so we can start gaining ground. Unfortunately, however, I don’t see that happening tonight.
Pablo Lopez is on the mound for Minnesota, and he’s a guy I (hate to) love betting on right now. At 5-6 with a 4.22 ERA, he may not seem particularly special, but his advanced numbers show a lot to like. And that’s the kind of situation that leads to value on the betting lines.
His 3.50 xFIP is right in line with the marks he posted over the last two seasons (3.32 and 3.56), and his 3.39 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is actually the best of his career. He’s upped his swinging-strike rate from a previous career-best of 12.8% to 14.5% this year, and his K-BB% (strikeout rate minus walk rate) is an elite 23.3%.
In other words, you shouldn’t care at all what his ERA says. Lopez has been phenomenal, and that mediocre ERA has the public underrating him. I hate backing the Twins, but I’m also not going to pass up on easy betting value because of it.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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