Factory Of Sadness
FanSided

Wild Card Chase: Cleveland Indians’ Defense Dug a Deep Hole Early

By Joe Russo

facebooktwitterreddit

The Cleveland Indians would be in a much better spot to claim a Wild Card spot had their defense been better at the beginning of the season.

With the Cleveland Indians dropping a must-win game against the Minnesota Twins Monday, the Wahoo faithful can finally buried the 2015 Tribe–a team picked by Sports Illustrated to win the World Series just six short months ago.

Now one game under .500, and 5.0 games back with seven to play, the Indians are done, and again, a Cleveland fan base is left asking: What could of been?

It’s tough not to think about what could have been in 2015 for the Tribe. We already took a look at what Jason Kipnis’s second half struggles have meant for the AL Wild Card chase, but let’s not forget about one of the biggest reasons the Tribe is on the outside looking in: The historically bad defense from the first half of the season.

Entering Sept. 28, only a handful of everyday players had a positive Defensive Wins Above Replacement rating, led by, believe it or not, Lonnie Chisenhall with a 1.9 rating. We’ll cover Chisenhall more later, but the others are Francisco Lindor (1.2), Yan Gomes (0.8), Jason Kipnis (0.5), and Abraham Almonte (0.5). At the other end of the spectrum, Carlos Santana scores a team low -1.4 in the field and even Michael Brantley, despite his excellent throwing arm, only scores a -0.6 DWAR.

Sep 15, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians right fielder Lonnie Chisenhall (8) makes a leaping catch on a hit by Kansas City Royals shortstop Alcides Escobar (not pictured) during the third inning at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

So just how bad was the Indians defense early? ESPN’s Grantland already did much of the work for us in a piece from early September that chronicled the defensive turnaround for the Tribe in the second half. When you dig through the article, it’s beyond ugly:

– Last in Defensive Runs Saved and Zone Rating (an assessment of the ground and plays a typical defensive player should make)

– The Indians team ERA stood at 4.54 through April. But the defense was the main culprit, as the team’s Fielding Independent Pitching, which measures the ERA with a league average defense, was all the way down to 3.49, more than an entire run lower than the actual ERA.

– On May 20th, nearly two full months into the season, the Tribe had a Defensive Runs Saved score of -25.

On May 20th, the Indians were 16-23 and in last place in the AL Central. Who knows what exactly that one run per game would have done to the overall record, but it’s safe to assume that even one or two more wins over that stretch would not have the Indians so out of control of their own destiny as they are heading into Monday. Through that stretch, the Tribe allowed 182 runs and actually scored 203 runs. Any team with that kind of run differential should be above .500 at the least, not seven games under.

It seems like every year the Indians start off slow. In fact, there’s a chance the Tribe could end with the exact same 85-77 record as 2014. Too often we hear the early part of the season dismissed. “Oh, it’s early yet. It won’t REALLY matter until September.” It’s not as if a win in April only counts as half or a loss in September counts as double. The Houston Astros would be in danger of not making the playoffs had they not built a substantial lead in the AL West so early in the season and the Mets are still just short of the NL Wild Card as they dug themselves such a deep hole to start the season with perhaps the only offense scuffling worse the Cleveland’s.

It’s no surprise then that the Indians defense got better alongside the team’s record. Lonnie Chisenhall, in nearly the same amount of innings, has become an entirely different player. Defensively, he was not abysmal at third base, but he has become exceptional in the outfield, which has really fueled his overall DWAR of 1.9. In fact, FanGraphs has him saving more runs defensively as a third baseman than as an outfielder.

It wasn’t Chisenhall’s addition to the outfield that made the biggest difference. It was more so the subtraction of a far below average trio of Jerry Sands, Brandon Moss, and Ryan Raburn. That group combined for -11 runs saved on the season as outfielders while Chisenhall alone scored a plus 11, essentially providing double the defensive value that was in right field to start the season. Remember this gem from Ryan Raburn? That guy played in our outfield.

Additionally, what has helped fuel Lindor’s Rookie of the Year candidacy has been his defense. Jose Ramirez had -2 Defensive Runs Saved. Lindor, however, “saved” +6 since coming up to the big league club and posted a DWAR of 1..2. His upgrade at the most important infield position has really given the team a boost along with his offensive output. Between Lindor and Chisenhall, that’s a plus 30 run swing in runs saves in two spots. It’s no surprise then that the Tribe’s defense and record improve after those changes were made.

We will continue to look at what sank the Indians hopes as the week goes on. But as we assess what happened in 2015, the early defensive breakdowns will have been a major factor in keeping Cleveland out of the postseason for the second year in a row.

Next: Why Mat Latos Should Intrigue The Tribe

More from Factory of Sadness

Home/Cleveland Guardians