When it comes to finding a Browns 2017 mock draft, look no further than what Pro Football Focus selected for the Browns.
Defensive superstar pass rusher: check.
Quarterback of the future: check.
Fan base re-energized, season tickets on the move: check.
Pro Football Focus, the analytics oriented website that some local media members believe is the “Browns Bible,” believes Cleveland will take Garrett and Trubisky with their two first-round selections in the 2017 NFL Draft.
Remember, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported Cleveland’s grade on Garrett was “astronomical.”
Here’s what PFF’s Steve Palazzolo write about Garrett. Note what SP wrote about Garrett’s improved skills against the run.
“The big question will be at quarterback for the Browns and trying to decipher if any signal-caller is worth taking at the top of the draft. There are certainly questions at the top and the Browns have two first-round picks to play with, so they do have some flexibility, especially with what is shaping up to be a very deep defensive draft. That said, they add the best pass-rusher in the draft in Garrett who graded at 91.0 as a rusher this season despite playing while banged up for much of the year. He has the burst, bend and power that teams are looking for off the edge and his three-year production is outstanding. Coming into the year, we wanted to see Garrett improve against the run and he did just that by grading at 86.8 to finish fourth among all edge defenders.”
Here’s what SP wrote about Trubisky, the local product from Mentor, Ohio.
The UNC prospect is PFF’s second QB off the board. SP had the 49ers selecting DeShaun Watson second overall.
“Trubisky who is creeping up the PFF Draft Board, though we have him as more of a back end of the first round player. However, the Browns are in position to take a chance and they look to Trubisky who is coming off a breakout year at North Carolina. He has the size, arm and athleticism to catch the attention of scouts, but he was also accurate as a first-year starter and he made good decisions with the ball in his hands. It all led to Trubisky ranking 10th in the nation among quarterbacks, and it would be even higher if not for a disastrous game in a hurricane against Virginia Tech. While he has the tools to build around, the risk with Trubisky is the lack of sample size as he only has the one year of starting experience, but it was an impressive season and there’s a chance he goes even higher on draft day.”
Again, note SP’s last sentence.
Trubisky’s lack of a sample size is risky.
The same could be said of Carson Wentz, who was selected No. 2 overall in 2016. While at North Dakota State, Wentz didn’t start right away and got hurt in his senior year. He threw just 612 career passes. That resulted in a 64.1 percent completion percentage.
Trubisky has attempted 533 passes, completing 363 times. That equates into a 68.1 completion percentage.
I bring this up because “the analytics” suggest that Wentz’s limited sample size was the reason to bypass the quarterback, according to ESPN Cleveland analyst Tony Grossi.
Wentz started the season off on fire, but has cooled considerably since guiding the Eagles to a 3-0 start. Wentz has thrown 13 TDs compared to 12 interceptions. His completing percentage is right around 63 percent.
If the assessment that the Browns “analytics” dictated that the team pass on Wentz, the same logic would apply to Trubisky.
With PFF is signing off on Trubisky, the Dawg Pound is left to wonder whether Paul DePodesta and Sashi Brown are buying into the local kid, too.